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Cavalcade of Risk #149: Single Best Answer

January 25, 2012 9 comments

As I mentioned earlier, I’m starting to rev up the studying for the licensing exam. A lot of the studying takes the form of practice questions. They’re actually a lot of fun to do: they force you to think actively about the clinical scenario, keep you on your toes, and make it near-impossible for your eyes to glaze over as you semi-consciously read the same page for the 10th time in a row as your eyelids begin to feel heavy, droop, and you start to….

Yikes! Where was I? Right! The Cavalcade is back! Since I’m sure that most of you don’t believe me when I say that doing practice questions is actually fun, I’m going to use this opportunity to try to convince you. With the aid of sophisticated, peer-reviewed psychometric techniques (or not), I have converted each entry into a USMLE-style “single best answer” multiple choice question. Let’s see how you do!

 

Cavalcade of Risk: Step 1[49]

 

Instructions: For each of the following test items, select the one answer that best answers the question posed in the stem.

From Boomer at Boomer&Echo: Which of the following behaviours of financial advisors correlates with the lowest risk of defrauding investors?
a) Claiming to have secret/exclusive insider tips that “your broker doesn’t want you to know.”
b) Counseling clients that investments with higher expected returns tend to be riskier.
c) Offering to move your money offshore to avoid taxation.
d) Pressuring you into making a hasty decision on an “exploding offer.”
e) Charging abnormally high membership fees.

From Ken Faulkenberry at the AAAMP Blog: If shares of the Notwithstanding Blog Internet Empire (NBIE) earned a 8% return in 2011 and exhibited a beta of +1.2 relative to a benchmark of shares in all medical blogs that collectively earned a 5% return, then:
a) The alpha for NBIE in 2011 was +2, making it a good investment.
b) The alpha for NBIE in 2011 was +3, making it a good investment.
c) The alpha for NBIE in 2011 was -3, making it a bad investment.
d) The alpha for NBIE in 2011 was -6.8, making it a bad investment.
e) The alpha for NBIE in 2011 cannot be calculated with this information.

From Van R. Mayhall III at the Insurance Regulatory Law Blog: Which of the following statements DOES NOT accurately characterize insurance company insolvency:
a) Most state-based insurance guaranty associations are more comparable to private member-based associations than true state agencies.
b) Insurance companies are subject to unique state-based insolvency protocols in lieu of entering the federal bankruptcy system.
c) Payouts from state insurance guaranty associations are subject to statutory caps.
d) Insurance guaranty associations are intended to provide “bailout” financing to prop up faltering insurers.
e) None of the above.

From Emily Holbrook at Risk Management Monitor: The shoe-shopping website Zappos.com recently earned positive press for:
a) Losing your examiner’s personal information, along with that of millions of other customers.
b) Locking out customers from your examiner’s home country for 4 days after a data breach.
c) Being named in a potentially-class action lawsuit seeking damages as a result of a data breach.
d) Having “some analysts” criticize the company’s response.
e) Having “some analysts” praise the company’s response.

From Jason Shafrin, the Healthcare Economist: Medicare’s new value-based purchasing initiative, which aims to reduce payment to “low-quality” doctors, currently uses treatment costs for which of the following chronic diseases as an element of its cost measure (as distinct from its quality measure):
a) Hypertension
b) Alzheimer’s disease
c) Diabetes
d) Lung cancer
e) Breast cancer

From Louise Norris at Colorado Health Insurance Insider: Colorado’s Medicaid program has recently undergone much change and provoked a great deal of controversy. What happened at the end of 2010 to put Colorado’s Medicaid program on better financial footing?
a) Successful negotiations to lower the fee schedule for physicians’ services.
b) A 55% increase in enrollment relative to 2007.
c) A one-time $13.7 million grant from CMS.
d) New dedicated revenue from a sales tax increase.
e) The introduction of Medicaid Managed Care programs.

From Dr. Jaan Sidorov, the Disease Management Care Blog: Which of the following is an accurate characterization of Dr. Sidorov’s assessment of Health Insurance Exchanges (HIEs) and recent Kaiser Health News commentary on the subject?
a) The left is doing their best to nurture this fledgling institution to maturity in anticipation of the PPACA’s full rollout.
b) It’s reasonable for consumers to spend more time shopping for consumer electronics than for health insurance.
c) Government-run HIEs will eventually match the ease-of-use and “cool” factor of iPhone apps and online purchasing aids.
d) Multiple insurance options on HIEs include variations in provider tiers, out-of-pocket costs, and exclusions.
e) Consumer expectations for HIEs will eventually be exceeded.

From Julie Ferguson at Workers Comp Insider: Doctors’ deaths differ from the deaths of other Americans in that:
a) Doctors often choose to forgo lifesaving chemo, radiation, and procedures.
b) Paradoxically, doctors often do not have access to the full range of lifesaving technologies as the rest of society.
c) Non-physicians tend to be more ready to accept death.
d) Doctors have a cultural bias against accepting death that isn’t shared by society at large.
e) Non-physicians who choose to fight their disease are often pressured by friends and family to be serene in the face of death.

Answer Key
Of course, since you read all the entries, you don’t need one! But just in case: B; A; D; E; C; C; D; A.

Examiner’s Notes

As always, it’s an honour and a pleasure to host the Cavalcade of Risk! If this is your first time at the Notwithstanding Blog, or if you’re coming back after a prolonged absence, I encourage you to take a moment and poke around some of other posts here. From health care policy to health professions training (i.e. medical school), I’ve got it covered.

The 150th(!) Cavalcade will be hosted on February 8th at My Wealth Builder.


Cavalcade of Risk #135: Independence Days Edition

July 13, 2011 5 comments

July 2011 has given us many causes to celebrate, and we’re not even half-way in! Early July is when we see Canada/Independence/Bastille Day celebrations in Canada, the United States, and France respectively. This past Saturday was the first day of independence for the brand-new Republic of South Sudan. And today, for the 135th iteration of the Cavalcade of Risk blog carnival, I am pleased to present nine incredibly informative and insightful submissions (plus one of my own) for your edification.

In recognition of all of the countries with July independence days, we’re going to be running a carnival sideshow at this blog carnival today. Interspersed with the submissions will be a small number of flags with trivia-esque hints for countries with July national days; the names of the countries will be at the end of the post. Hopefully this will be an entertaining mid-July “trivial pursuit” to accompany the serious business of risk discussed in the submissions!

This country's neighbours include Suriname and Brazil. (is this a trick question?!)

Two related posts from Jacob Irwin and a guest blogger at My Personal Finance Journey discuss the perils of e-commerce and sharing financial information online. Jacob dissects an example of a common ‘phishing’ scam, and the red flags that should cause one to be suspicious of an email that seems designed to separate you from your personal information (and eventually, your money!). His guest blogger, Les Roberts, talks about how to stay safe while shopping online, and discusses some of the basic technical aspects of secure online transactions.

Tom Drake at the Canadian Finance Blog has a comprehensive post addressing what he claims is the conventional wisdom regarding life insurance: buy term and invest the difference. He argues that while the strategy has its obvious appeal, it’s highly sensitive to the assumptions used in the term vs. permanent comparison. Well worth a read!

No, it's not an American flag, though their capital is named for one of America's Founding Fathers.

Hank Stern, writing at InsureBlog, notes in the context of recent floods in North Dakota that sometimes taking a risk with your insurance coverage can be justified, but as with the analysis in the previous post, that it all comes down to how robust your assumptions are. Come to think of it, isn’t that the case with just about anything?

This country currently leads the world for longest stretch without an official government. You might say they've been waffling for the past year or so.

Wondering about health insurance exchanges? Dr. Jaan Sidorov (aka the Disease Management Care Blog) took one for the team and dove into the depths of the details of Utah’s already-existing exchange. He notes that setting up an exchange is far more complicated than one might think at first glance, and that it’s unlikely that they will be functional in every state of the union come the 2014 deadline. He also ponders the potential for exchange listing/delisting to be used as a quasi-extra-legal cudgel (my words, not his!) by state insurance regulators seeking additional ways to force insurers into line.

“Oh no they didn’t!” is a common refrain from business owners wondering how that absurd claim could have been paid out by their workers’ compensation carrier. Nancy Germond has a clear and concise explanation of why, “oh yes they did!“, along with an interesting history of how workers’ comp came to be in the first place. Read on at Allbusiness.com.

Do you remember the Dodd-Frank bill? Thought it only applied to big banks and high-falutin’ investment securitization shenanigans? Van Mayhall III has a post at his Insurance Regulatory Law blog reminding us that the new provisions of the law could also affect larger insurance companies and their affiliates in ways that management will want to be aware of well in advance of anything going wrong.

St. Thomas isn't just one of the US Virgin Islands. This equatorial namesake, however, has a "princely" companion.

At Colorado Health Insurance Insider, Louise Norris asks whether eligibility criteria for the newly-established federal high-risk health insurance pools is hampering enrollment. Colorado is an interesting vantage point from which to observe this: the twenty-year-old program “CoverColorado” is very similar to the new federal one. The differences between the two programs’ eligibility rules generate good insight into where the federal program is going wrong in attracting enrollees.

If you asked this country for a date in 1995, you might find the time being pushed up unexpectedly.

Workers Comp Insider Julie Ferguson and I seem to have been on the same wavelength for this blog carnival! I recently wrote a post arguing that the problem of poor price transparency in health care may be an objection to the use of consumer-directed health plans now, but that early adopters will pave the way forward for the rest of us. The chicken-and-egg issue is not all that intractable! Julie Ferguson, on the other hand, has a far superior post addressing the same topic. She points out the immense price differences for the same medical services that exist across state lines and across street intersections alike, and provides links to seven (count’em!) different resources for employers and individuals to use to get the best bang for their medical buck.

***

This brings CoR-135 to a close. Thank you to all of the submitters for their quality posts on risk, and thank you to Hank Stern for his tireless work managing the behind-the-scenes logistics of every edition of this blog carnival. It really is an honour for this callow medical student to be invited to sit at the grown-ups’ table and host the Cavalcade!

The next edition of Cavalcade of Risk will be hosted by Jacob Irwin at My Personal Finance Journey on July 27th.

***

For those of you who tried your hand at the national flags-and-trivia sideshow, the answers are here.

The first one was something of a trick question. It’s France! French Guiana sits atop the northern coast of South America, and is every bit a part of France as Paris or Nice, and as such France has land borders with Brazil and Suriname. Bastille Day: July 14.

It’s not an American flag, but there is a reason it sorta-kinda looks like one. Liberia was established as a place to which to “repatriate” black Americans in the early 19th century, the idea being that they could live a life of greater freedom there than in the antebellum United States. James Monroe was one supporter of this effort: the Liberian capital is Monrovia, after him. Proclamation of independence from the United States: July 26.

Next up: Belgium! It’s been quite a while since they’ve had an official government, and the country is wracked by political tensions between the Flemish and Walloon communities. Oath of the first King of the Belgians: July 21.

St. Thomas in Portuguese is Sao Tome (can’t figure out accents, sorry!), and the flag is that of Sao Tome and Principe, a small island nation located along the Equator in the waters west of Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. Independence from Portugal: July 12.

Prior to 1995, the Pacific island country of Kiribati was split by the international date line. Makes inter-state time zone differences in the US seem incredibly convenient by comparison, doesn’t it? After kinking the IDL a bit to the east to accommodate the entire country on one side, Kiribati was positioned to be the first country in the world to see each new day. Independence from the UK: also July 12.

AMSA Follies: Swagalicious

May 5, 2011 1 comment

I’ve alluded to AMSA’s… interesting choices regarding who they will and will not take money from (or at least, who they will claim not to take money from). Here’s the long-promised photographic evidence: the swag I collected from conference exhibitors.

What you’ll find below the cut includes:

  • A pamphlet, a bag, and some pens from Medical Protective, a professional liability insurance company owned by Berkshire Hathaway.
  • A Merck Manual (yes, that Merck… the one that makes all these ”pharms” of which AMSA claims to be ”free”).
  • Materials from various academies of quackery (as seen earlier).
  • A pen, a magnet, and some other swag from the FDA.
  • Application forms for various forms of insurance/consumer credit provided by or through AMSA.
  • Some stuff from banks.
  • Swag NOS.

Read more…

You only get to pick one

February 21, 2011 Leave a comment

I’m not the first person to have made this point, but a recent post on HIT/EMR adoption at KevinMD got me thinking about it again:

Many clinicians are resisting the implementation of electronic medical records and other forward-thinking technologies because they dislike change, and technology for that matter. This is likely because the technology that is being imposed on them is difficult to use, or doesn’t feel natural to them.

This is something one hears a great deal of during discussions of physicians and technology. “Physicians are stubborn and resistant to change.” Let’s be honest, who doesn’t know a physician (or 2, or 20) that fits this description?

On its own, this is not a facially illogical explanation for low EMR uptake and resistance to health IT mandates from the government. Of course, many of the prominent organizations who believe that our salvation lies in EMRs and that those pesky, technophobic physicians need to fall into line (think Commonwealth Fund) are the ones who continually remind us that the reason behind the long, inexorable march of increasing health care costs is…

… physicians’ constant readiness and willingness to adopt new technologies and innovations when they feel it will improve patient care, or the bottom line.

Having never seen anyone from these schools of thought even try to explain how these two views are compatible, I can only conclude that some hard doctrinal choices are in order.

***

Argument by Anecdote!

Last week, I was shadowing an older, outpatient physician in a procedure-heavy specialty who is on the voluntary faculty at SUMS, and admits to SUMS’ main teaching site. We talked for a while about the hospital/med school EMR, which we both agree is a nightmarish monstrosity. He was explaining how he was holding off on the paper –> electronic conversion for as long as possible (i.e. until the school forced him), because the product was just so terrible.

He then proceeded to show me the brand-new Siemens ultrasound system that he and his partner had purchased not two weeks ago. He explained the effort that he went through to train himself on it and its new features, and how it was already an improvement over the model he had been using previously. He then proceeded to reminisce about all of the technical wizardry that had been invented in his professional lifetime that he now uses routinely in the office, because he feels that it enhances his ability to care for his patients.

He really, really does not want to switch to the hospital EMR.

Stubborn, resistant to change, and fearful of new technology? You tell me.

Cavalcade of Risk #123: Exam Season

January 25, 2011 7 comments

 

After the initial enthusiasm of the start of medical school fades away, as excitement for the distant future is replaced with the quotidian routine of classes, lab, and review sessions, the realization finally settles in: we’re, um, expected to know all of this?

Most students at medical schools across the country respond to this challenge in the same way, living their lives by a simple, two-word credo that serves to guide their acquisition of knowledge. While I can’t say I show the same fervent devotion to it that many others do, it’s indisputably a part of medical school culture, and is certainly a useful mindset to have when it comes time to study for exams. It is in celebration of that spirit that I present to you today:


Cavalcade of Risk #123:  High-Yield Edition


The Basics


Risks and probabilities are important aspects of clinical medicine. How well are medical schools teaching future doctors to process statistics and other research information from the clinical literature? What does it mean for the quality of future physicians? Jin Packard, a New York Medical College student blogging at Low-Yield Med, draws from his own experiences to argue that the level of training is “nothing shy of a disgrace.” I went one step further and called it a straight-up failure.

Darwin of Darwin’s Money brings us back to the basics, with a clear, concise explanation of how to compare sums of money across time (i.e. “present value” and “future value”). A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in 10 years. Darwin explains the “how” and “why.” Understanding this sort of calculation, and the sorts of assumptions embedded in it, is integral to understanding so much of finance, insurance, and economics. This is a great post to use to learn it, or for a quick refresher.


Health Insurance

Jeff Rose, blogging at Good Financial Cents, features a guest post summarizing the major changes to health-related Flexible Spending Accounts that took effect at the beginning of the New Year. The highlights are the need to get prescriptions for OTC drugs, restrictions on what kinds of stores can accept FSA debit cards, and higher penalties for breaking the rules. All in all, it’s become much more difficult to use FSA money to pay for over-the-counter medications and other health expenses.

Closing out an “ACO ‘orgy week’ of postings” (his words, not mine!) at the Disease Management Care Blog, Dr. Jaan Sidorov takes a look at a recent Medicare demo of these new-fangled, orgiastic Accountable Care Organizations. While, as he says, “ACOs are arguably the only good long term answer to controlling costs, reportedly by making doctors and hospitals play nice with each other and participate in downstream savings,” he wonders why “they, compared to managed care insurers, any less likely to withhold costly care.”

Louise, blogging at Colorado Health Insurance Insider, discusses the proposal by a Colorado legislator to remove the cap on tax-deductible contributions to Health Savings Accounts in the name of sensible health reform. She argues that while this would be a boon to higher-income families who could thus contribute more money to HSAs (and thus shelter more income from taxes), it would do nothing to expand access to health care for those at lower ends of the income scale.

There are consumer protections, and then there are consumer protections. I point out an unusual pair of health policy stories from the past week: on one hand, PPACA supporters warning Republicans not to mess with the new law’s “consumer protections”; on the other hand, healthcare lawyers pointing out that for the law’s vaunted ACOs to have a decent chance of success, many existing “consumer protections” in healthcare may have to be gutted. I ask what the juxtaposition of these two implies about the moral necessity of the healthcare regulatory apparatus as a whole.


Other Insurance

Ryan at CashMoneyLife provides a quick, easy-to-digest rundown on life and viatical settlements, with attention paid to the risks and benefits for both buyers and sellers of life insurance policies in these transaction. These settlements allow life insurance policyholders to “cash out” some fraction of the policy’s face value, and investors to (maybe) make a profit when the policy pays off. Ultimately, while acknowledging that they are not evil and have their roles to play in the insurance marketplace, he concludes that these certainly “aren’t right for the majority of people out there.”

Free Money Finance touts the merits of umbrella insurance policies: they’re relatively inexpensive for the coverage that you get; and that coverage can come in really handy when one lawsuit could be all it takes to exhaust the coverage that your home and auto policies provide. As he points out, “even if your assets are low, your future earnings are probably not,” and both are fair game in a lawsuit.

Hank Stern of InsureBlog fame dissects some finance/insurance “wisdom” posted at an AOL personal finance website. He wasn’t too impressed with their list of “Seven Insurance Policies That Aren’t Worth The Money,” finding that there wasn’t much “profound wisdom to be had.” It’s worth remembering the need to keep your wits about you when reading financial advice on the Internet… or anywhere else, for that matter.

The Digerati Life makes the case that consumers should generally avoid buying the type of insurance that they’re most often offered: extended warranty programs. They’re often costly, and may duplicate coverage provided by your credit card. The proposed alternative is to save the money that would have been spent on these warranties as a personal “warranty fund” of sorts.


Non-insurance risk management

While prognostications about financial markets are dime-a-dozen, some of them still make for interesting reads. This interview with a Canadian asset manager, conducted by Arjun Rudra and posted at InvestingThesis, is one of them. The discussion touches upon prospects for gold, the likelihood that QE2 will succeed, interest rates, emerging markets, and the Canadian dollar (with a bearish outlook on most of these).

Circumcision has been shown to dramatically reduce the risk of males contracting HIV from heterosexual sex. The government of Swaziland has begun a mass circumcision campaign in the hopes of reducing HIV incidence. Jason Shafrin, the Healthcare Economist, discusses why such an effort might actually increase HIV incidence: moral hazard.

At some point afterI grow up and become a doctor, I will be sued. When that happens, I want a defence like the one described (with illustrations) by David Williams at the Health Business Blog. A patient died shortly after an operation to replace a stenosed bicusoid aortic valve. The plaintiff argued that the operation was performed improperly, and that the replacement valve chosen was of an incorrect size. The defence argued the opposite, supported by the visual aids that David has posted, and obtained a verdict in their favour.

Julie Ferguson of Workers Comp Insider sends along a wreck of a video (literally) accompanied by advice for truck operators looking to avoid mismatches between the height of their vehicle and the clearance of that rapidly-approaching underpass. Along with the usual advice to plan your route and heed signage about clearance, it’s also recommended to check in advance with local/state departments of transportation for information about low underpasses… a source of information that many people (myself included) might not think of.


Content, NOS

It was a pleasure and an honour to host this edition of the Cavalcade of Risk! Now that you’re done with the best risk-related blog posts of the past fortnight, I’d like to invite you to poke around the rest of The Notwithstanding Blog, home to tales from medical school, health policy analysis, critiques of the academic medical zeitgeist, and the occasional bonus Canadiana. I think you’ll like what you see!

***

The next edition of Cavalcade of Risk will be hosted by Dr. Sidorov on February 9th.

Around the Mediverse: July 17, 2010

July 17, 2010 Leave a comment

Fun tidbits, health-related and otherwise, from around the ‘tubes:

  • How do the media deal with new research?  How should the media, or anyone else for that matter, interpret new research?  Unfortunately, the New York times only devotes a couple of paragraphs to this first question, but even that is enough to illuminate the complex web of incentives facing those in the science communications industry, and what it means for the science coverage that you see.  A blogger at Foreign Policy provides some useful advice in response to the second question.
  • File these under “overutilization” for sure:  Dinosaur accuses the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology of “usurping” primary care’s scope of practice with new guidelines recommending OB/GYN visits for younger teenagers; MD Whistleblower blows the whistle on various “pre-emptive” CT scans that are being advertised to patients despite the fact that they don’t do much good for anyone.
  • Science-Based Medicine writes a rebuttal to a Slate piece linked to in the last edition of AtM:  Why Big Pharma should not buy your doctor lunch.  SBM also featured some well-written commentary about new CMS head Don Berwick, touching on his lax attitude towards pseudoscience, and the Central Berwick Paradox of supporting unlimited patient choice and top-down government rationing.  Or something like that.

Around the Mediverse: July 8, 2010

July 8, 2010 3 comments

Fun tidbits, health-related and otherwise, from around the ‘tubes:

  • Some questions have emerged about Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan.  Reason asks if she would ban books.  Bloggers at the Volokh Conspiracy touch on what is arguably Kagan’s political manipulation of a medical specialty society’s statement on abortion.  It should be said that the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology comes out looking worse than the nominee.
  • Though the response to the Deepwater Horizon spill has arguably been insufficiently aggressive, here are two commentators who argue that children should be taught to better express and receive aggression.
  • What is a “scientific consensus?”  Reason’s Ronald Bailey takes on this issue.  Along the way, we stumble onto this gem of a web page explaining the relationship between animal models of carcinogenic toxicity and the actual exposure of humans to those substances.  Much more non-technical than I made it sound.  Do give it a read if only to attenuate your own “cancer panic” over some of those chemicals.
  • David Williams at the Health Business Blog reminds everyone that hospital visits should be BYOMD.
  • Two recent guest posts at KevinMD point out that the concept of the patient-centered medical home is probably way overhyped, given the current evidence “for” it.
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