Cavalcade of Risk #123: Exam Season

 

After the initial enthusiasm of the start of medical school fades away, as excitement for the distant future is replaced with the quotidian routine of classes, lab, and review sessions, the realization finally settles in: we’re, um, expected to know all of this?

Most students at medical schools across the country respond to this challenge in the same way, living their lives by a simple, two-word credo that serves to guide their acquisition of knowledge. While I can’t say I show the same fervent devotion to it that many others do, it’s indisputably a part of medical school culture, and is certainly a useful mindset to have when it comes time to study for exams. It is in celebration of that spirit that I present to you today:

Cavalcade of Risk #123:  High-Yield Edition

The Basics

Risks and probabilities are important aspects of clinical medicine. How well are medical schools teaching future doctors to process statistics and other research information from the clinical literature? What does it mean for the quality of future physicians? Jin Packard, a New York Medical College student blogging at Low-Yield Med, draws from his own experiences to argue that the level of training is “nothing shy of a disgrace.” I went one step further and called it a straight-up failure.

Darwin of Darwin’s Money brings us back to the basics, with a clear, concise explanation of how to compare sums of money across time (i.e. “present value” and “future value”). A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in 10 years. Darwin explains the “how” and “why.” Understanding this sort of calculation, and the sorts of assumptions embedded in it, is integral to understanding so much of finance, insurance, and economics. This is a great post to use to learn it, or for a quick refresher.

Health Insurance

Jeff Rose, blogging at Good Financial Cents, features a guest post summarizing the major changes to health-related Flexible Spending Accounts that took effect at the beginning of the New Year. The highlights are the need to get prescriptions for OTC drugs, restrictions on what kinds of stores can accept FSA debit cards, and higher penalties for breaking the rules. All in all, it’s become much more difficult to use FSA money to pay for over-the-counter medications and other health expenses.

Closing out an “ACO ‘orgy week’ of postings” (his words, not mine!) at the Disease Management Care Blog, Dr. Jaan Sidorov takes a look at a recent Medicare demo of these new-fangled, orgiastic Accountable Care Organizations. While, as he says, “ACOs are arguably the only good long term answer to controlling costs, reportedly by making doctors and hospitals play nice with each other and participate in downstream savings,” he wonders why “they, compared to managed care insurers, any less likely to withhold costly care.”

Louise, blogging at Colorado Health Insurance Insider, discusses the proposal by a Colorado legislator to remove the cap on tax-deductible contributions to Health Savings Accounts in the name of sensible health reform. She argues that while this would be a boon to higher-income families who could thus contribute more money to HSAs (and thus shelter more income from taxes), it would do nothing to expand access to health care for those at lower ends of the income scale.

There are consumer protections, and then there are consumer protections. I point out an unusual pair of health policy stories from the past week: on one hand, PPACA supporters warning Republicans not to mess with the new law’s “consumer protections”; on the other hand, healthcare lawyers pointing out that for the law’s vaunted ACOs to have a decent chance of success, many existing “consumer protections” in healthcare may have to be gutted. I ask what the juxtaposition of these two implies about the moral necessity of the healthcare regulatory apparatus as a whole.

Other Insurance

Ryan at CashMoneyLife provides a quick, easy-to-digest rundown on life and viatical settlements, with attention paid to the risks and benefits for both buyers and sellers of life insurance policies in these transaction. These settlements allow life insurance policyholders to “cash out” some fraction of the policy’s face value, and investors to (maybe) make a profit when the policy pays off. Ultimately, while acknowledging that they are not evil and have their roles to play in the insurance marketplace, he concludes that these certainly “aren’t right for the majority of people out there.”

Free Money Finance touts the merits of umbrella insurance policies: they’re relatively inexpensive for the coverage that you get; and that coverage can come in really handy when one lawsuit could be all it takes to exhaust the coverage that your home and auto policies provide. As he points out, “even if your assets are low, your future earnings are probably not,” and both are fair game in a lawsuit.

Hank Stern of InsureBlog fame dissects some finance/insurance “wisdom” posted at an AOL personal finance website. He wasn’t too impressed with their list of “Seven Insurance Policies That Aren’t Worth The Money,” finding that there wasn’t much “profound wisdom to be had.” It’s worth remembering the need to keep your wits about you when reading financial advice on the Internet… or anywhere else, for that matter.

The Digerati Life makes the case that consumers should generally avoid buying the type of insurance that they’re most often offered: extended warranty programs. They’re often costly, and may duplicate coverage provided by your credit card. The proposed alternative is to save the money that would have been spent on these warranties as a personal “warranty fund” of sorts.

Non-insurance risk management

While prognostications about financial markets are dime-a-dozen, some of them still make for interesting reads. This interview with a Canadian asset manager, conducted by Arjun Rudra and posted at InvestingThesis, is one of them. The discussion touches upon prospects for gold, the likelihood that QE2 will succeed, interest rates, emerging markets, and the Canadian dollar (with a bearish outlook on most of these).

Circumcision has been shown to dramatically reduce the risk of males contracting HIV from heterosexual sex. The government of Swaziland has begun a mass circumcision campaign in the hopes of reducing HIV incidence. Jason Shafrin, the Healthcare Economist, discusses why such an effort might actually increase HIV incidence: moral hazard.

At some point afterI grow up and become a doctor, I will be sued. When that happens, I want a defence like the one described (with illustrations) by David Williams at the Health Business Blog. A patient died shortly after an operation to replace a stenosed bicusoid aortic valve. The plaintiff argued that the operation was performed improperly, and that the replacement valve chosen was of an incorrect size. The defence argued the opposite, supported by the visual aids that David has posted, and obtained a verdict in their favour.

Julie Ferguson of Workers Comp Insider sends along a wreck of a video (literally) accompanied by advice for truck operators looking to avoid mismatches between the height of their vehicle and the clearance of that rapidly-approaching underpass. Along with the usual advice to plan your route and heed signage about clearance, it’s also recommended to check in advance with local/state departments of transportation for information about low underpasses… a source of information that many people (myself included) might not think of.

Content, NOS

It was a pleasure and an honour to host this edition of the Cavalcade of Risk! Now that you’re done with the best risk-related blog posts of the past fortnight, I’d like to invite you to poke around the rest of The Notwithstanding Blog, home to tales from medical school, health policy analysis, critiques of the academic medical zeitgeist, and the occasional bonus Canadiana. I think you’ll like what you see!

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The next edition of Cavalcade of Risk will be hosted by Dr. Sidorov on February 9th.